A review of estimated transmission parameters for the spread of avian influenza viruses
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Avian influenza poses an increasing problem in Europe and around the world. Simulation models are a useful tool to predict the spatiotemporal risk of avian influenza spread and evaluate appropriate control actions. To develop realistic simulation models, valid transmission parameters are critical. Here, we reviewed published estimates of the basic reproduction number (R0), the latent period and the infectious period by virus type, pathogenicity, species, study type and poultry flock unit. We found a large variation in the parameter estimates, with highest R0 estimates for H5N1 and H7N3 compared with other types; for low pathogenic avian influenza compared with high pathogenic avian influenza types; for ducks compared with other species; for estimates from field studies compared with experimental studies; and for within-flock estimates compared with between-flock estimates. Simulation models should reflect this observed variation so as to produce more reliable outputs and support decision-making. How to incorporate this information into simulation models remains a challenge.
Original language | English |
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Journal | Transboundary and Emerging Diseases |
Volume | 69 |
Issue number | 6 |
Pages (from-to) | 3238-3246 |
ISSN | 1865-1674 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 2022 |
Bibliographical note
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 The Authors. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases published by Wiley-VCH GmbH.
- avian influenza virus, mathematical model, poultry, simulation model, transmission
Research areas
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