A review of estimated transmission parameters for the spread of avian influenza viruses

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Avian influenza poses an increasing problem in Europe and around the world. Simulation models are a useful tool to predict the spatiotemporal risk of avian influenza spread and evaluate appropriate control actions. To develop realistic simulation models, valid transmission parameters are critical. Here, we reviewed published estimates of the basic reproduction number (R0), the latent period and the infectious period by virus type, pathogenicity, species, study type and poultry flock unit. We found a large variation in the parameter estimates, with highest R0 estimates for H5N1 and H7N3 compared with other types; for low pathogenic avian influenza compared with high pathogenic avian influenza types; for ducks compared with other species; for estimates from field studies compared with experimental studies; and for within-flock estimates compared with between-flock estimates. Simulation models should reflect this observed variation so as to produce more reliable outputs and support decision-making. How to incorporate this information into simulation models remains a challenge.

Original languageEnglish
JournalTransboundary and Emerging Diseases
Volume69
Issue number6
Pages (from-to)3238-3246
ISSN1865-1674
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2022

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 The Authors. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases published by Wiley-VCH GmbH.

    Research areas

  • avian influenza virus, mathematical model, poultry, simulation model, transmission

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