Modeling the Effect of Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus in Australian Beef Herds

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

Documents

  • Fulltext

    Final published version, 2.67 MB, PDF document

  • Jake Fountain
  • Marta Hernandez-Jover
  • Kirkeby, Carsten
  • Tariq Halasa
  • Jennifer Manyweathers
  • Yiheyis Maru
  • Victoria Brookes

Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) is an economically important disease in Australian beef farming. The disease typically results in low-level production losses that can be difficult to detect for several years. Simulation modeling can be used to support the decision to control BVDV; however, current BVDV simulation models do not adequately reflect the extensive farming environment of Australian beef production. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop a disease simulation model to explore the impact of BVDV on beef cattle production in south-east Australia. A dynamic, individual-based, stochastic, discrete-time simulation model was created to simulate within-herd transmission of BVDV in a seasonal, self-replacing beef herd. We used the model to simulate the effect of herd size and BVDV introduction time on disease transmission and assessed the short- and long-term impact of BVDV on production outputs that influence the economic performance of beef farms. We found that BVDV can become established in a herd after a single PI introduction in 60% of cases, most frequently associated with the breeding period. The initial impact of BVDV will be more severe in smaller herds, although self-elimination is more likely in small herds than in larger herds, in which there is a 23% chance that the virus can persist for >15 years following a single incursion in a herd with 800 breeders. The number and weight of steers sold was reduced in the presence of BVDV and the results demonstrated that repeat incursions exacerbate long-term production losses, even when annual losses appear marginal. This model reflects the short- and long-term production losses attributed to BVDV in beef herds in southeast Australia and provides a foundation from which the influence and economic utility of BVDV prevention in Australian beef herds can be assessed.

Original languageEnglish
Article number795575
JournalFrontiers in Veterinary Science
Volume8
ISSN2297-1769
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2021

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2021 Fountain, Hernandez-Jover, Kirkeby, Halasa, Manyweathers, Maru and Brookes.

    Research areas

  • Australia, beef, bovine, BVDV, model, production, simulation, viral

ID: 289393570