Potential drivers of human tick-borne encephalitis in the Örebro region of Sweden, 2010-2021
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Potential drivers of human tick-borne encephalitis in the Örebro region of Sweden, 2010-2021. / Kjær, Lene Jung; Johansson, Magnus; Lindgren, Per-Eric; Asghar, Naveed; Wilhelmsson, Peter; Fredlund, Hans; Christensson, Madeleine; Wallenhammar, Amélie; Bødker, René; Rasmussen, Gunløg; Kjellander, Petter.
In: Scientific Reports, Vol. 13, 7685, 2023.Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Potential drivers of human tick-borne encephalitis in the Örebro region of Sweden, 2010-2021
AU - Kjær, Lene Jung
AU - Johansson, Magnus
AU - Lindgren, Per-Eric
AU - Asghar, Naveed
AU - Wilhelmsson, Peter
AU - Fredlund, Hans
AU - Christensson, Madeleine
AU - Wallenhammar, Amélie
AU - Bødker, René
AU - Rasmussen, Gunløg
AU - Kjellander, Petter
N1 - © 2023. The Author(s).
PY - 2023
Y1 - 2023
N2 - Incidence of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) has increased during the last years in Scandinavia, but the underlying mechanism is not understood. TBE human case data reported between 2010 and 2021 were aggregated into postal codes within Örebro County, south-central Sweden, along with tick abundance and environmental data to analyse spatial patterns and identify drivers of TBE. We identified a substantial and continuing increase of TBE incidence in Örebro County during the study period. Spatial cluster analyses showed significant hotspots (higher number of cases than expected) in the southern and northern parts of Örebro County, whereas a cold spot (lower number of cases than expected) was found in the central part comprising Örebro municipality. Generalised linear models showed that the risk of acquiring TBE increased by 12.5% and 72.3% for every percent increase in relative humidity and proportion of wetland forest, respectively, whereas the risk decreased by 52.8% for every degree Celsius increase in annual temperature range. However, models had relatively low goodness of fit (R2 < 0.27). Results suggest that TBE in Örebro County is spatially clustered, however variables used in this study, i.e., climatic variables, forest cover, water, tick abundance, sheep as indicator species, alone do not explain this pattern.
AB - Incidence of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) has increased during the last years in Scandinavia, but the underlying mechanism is not understood. TBE human case data reported between 2010 and 2021 were aggregated into postal codes within Örebro County, south-central Sweden, along with tick abundance and environmental data to analyse spatial patterns and identify drivers of TBE. We identified a substantial and continuing increase of TBE incidence in Örebro County during the study period. Spatial cluster analyses showed significant hotspots (higher number of cases than expected) in the southern and northern parts of Örebro County, whereas a cold spot (lower number of cases than expected) was found in the central part comprising Örebro municipality. Generalised linear models showed that the risk of acquiring TBE increased by 12.5% and 72.3% for every percent increase in relative humidity and proportion of wetland forest, respectively, whereas the risk decreased by 52.8% for every degree Celsius increase in annual temperature range. However, models had relatively low goodness of fit (R2 < 0.27). Results suggest that TBE in Örebro County is spatially clustered, however variables used in this study, i.e., climatic variables, forest cover, water, tick abundance, sheep as indicator species, alone do not explain this pattern.
U2 - 10.1038/s41598-023-34675-x
DO - 10.1038/s41598-023-34675-x
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 37169798
VL - 13
JO - Scientific Reports
JF - Scientific Reports
SN - 2045-2322
M1 - 7685
ER -
ID: 346253443