Propagation of disruptions in supply networks of essential goods: A population-centered perspective of systemic risk
Research output: Contribution to conference › Conference abstract for conference › Research › peer-review
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Propagation of disruptions in supply networks of essential goods : A population-centered perspective of systemic risk. / Schueller, William; Diem, Christian; Hinterplattner, Melanie ; Stangl, Johannes; Conrady, Beate; Gerschberger, Markus; Thurner, Stefan.
2022. Abstract from NetSci 2022.Research output: Contribution to conference › Conference abstract for conference › Research › peer-review
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TY - ABST
T1 - Propagation of disruptions in supply networks of essential goods
T2 - NetSci 2022
AU - Schueller, William
AU - Diem, Christian
AU - Hinterplattner, Melanie
AU - Stangl, Johannes
AU - Conrady, Beate
AU - Gerschberger, Markus
AU - Thurner, Stefan
PY - 2022
Y1 - 2022
N2 - The Covid-19 pandemic drastically emphasized the fragility of national and international supply networks (SNs), leading to significant supply shortages of essential goods for people, such as food and medical equipment. Severe disruptions that propagate along complex SNs can expose the population of entire regions or even countries to these risks. A lack of both, data and quantitative methodology, has hitherto hindered us to empirically quantify the vulnerability of the population to disruptions. Here we develop a data-driven simulation methodology to locally quantify actual supply losses for the population that result from the cascading of supply disruptions. We demonstrate the method on a large food SN of a European country including 22,938 business premises, 44,355 supply links and 116 local administrative districts. We rank the business premises with respect to their criticality for the districts’ population with the proposed systemic risk index, SRIcrit, to identify around 30 premises that—in case of their failure—are expected to cause critical supply shortages in sizable fractions of the population. The new methodology is immediately policy relevant as a fact-driven and generalizable crisis management tool. This work represents a starting point for quantitatively studying SN disruptions focused on the well-being of the population.
AB - The Covid-19 pandemic drastically emphasized the fragility of national and international supply networks (SNs), leading to significant supply shortages of essential goods for people, such as food and medical equipment. Severe disruptions that propagate along complex SNs can expose the population of entire regions or even countries to these risks. A lack of both, data and quantitative methodology, has hitherto hindered us to empirically quantify the vulnerability of the population to disruptions. Here we develop a data-driven simulation methodology to locally quantify actual supply losses for the population that result from the cascading of supply disruptions. We demonstrate the method on a large food SN of a European country including 22,938 business premises, 44,355 supply links and 116 local administrative districts. We rank the business premises with respect to their criticality for the districts’ population with the proposed systemic risk index, SRIcrit, to identify around 30 premises that—in case of their failure—are expected to cause critical supply shortages in sizable fractions of the population. The new methodology is immediately policy relevant as a fact-driven and generalizable crisis management tool. This work represents a starting point for quantitatively studying SN disruptions focused on the well-being of the population.
M3 - Conference abstract for conference
Y2 - 25 July 2022 through 29 July 2022
ER -
ID: 319171142