Project leader: Carsten Kirkeby, e-mail: ckir@sund.ku.dk 


In Denmark, outbreaks of avian influenza have increased in recent years, both in wild birds and in poultry flocks. This has led to the culling of many flocks, with devastating economic impact. Research is needed to identify areas and periods with higher risk. Furthermore, a better understanding of the factors driving the Danish outbreaks is needed.

Purpose of the Project

The objective of the ENIGMA project is to construct an early warning system for avian influenza in Denmark. This includes:

  • Investigation of the spatiotemporal association between outbreaks outside and within Denmark
  • Development of a framework that can be used for continuous surveillance of outbreaks in Europa and use that data to predict the risk of outbreaks within Denmark. This will be utilized for contingency and research work
  • Estimate the impact of other potential risk factors, such as release of game birds and landscape data
  • Development of a simulation model to estimate the risk of an outbreak in wild birds and potential impact on poultry flocks.

We work on the international, national and the local level to investigate the transmission of avian influenza within Denmark:






The ENIGMA project is carried out in collaboration with: 

Project participants

  • Lene Jung Kjær
  • Anette Boklund
  • Yangfan Liu
  • Lars Erik Larsen
  • Charlotte Hjulsager
  • Yuan Liang