ENIGMA: EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR AVIAN INFLUENZA
Project leader: Carsten Kirkeby, e-mail: ckir@sund.ku.dk
Background
In Denmark, outbreaks of avian influenza have increased in recent years, both in wild birds and in poultry flocks. This has led to the culling of many flocks, with devastating economic impact. Research is needed to identify areas and periods with higher risk. Furthermore, a better understanding of the factors driving the Danish outbreaks is needed.
Purpose of the Project
The objective of the ENIGMA project is to construct an early warning system for avian influenza in Denmark. This includes:
- Investigation of the spatiotemporal association between outbreaks outside and within Denmark
- Development of a framework that can be used for continuous surveillance of outbreaks in Europa and use that data to predict the risk of outbreaks within Denmark. This will be utilized for contingency and research work
- Estimate the impact of other potential risk factors, such as release of game birds and landscape data
- Development of a simulation model to estimate the risk of an outbreak in wild birds and potential impact on poultry flocks.
We work on the international, national and the local level to investigate the transmission of avian influenza within Denmark:
Papers published in 2022:
- A review of estimated transmission parameters for the spread of avian influenza viruses: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/tbed.14675
- Landscape effects and spatial patterns of avian influenza virus in Danish wild birds, 2006–2020: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/tbed.14040
- Risk factors of avian influenza in Danish poultry and wild birds during the epidemic waves from June 2020 to May 2021
- A review of estimated transmission parameters for the spread of avian influenza viruses
- Landscape effects and spatial patterns of avian influenza virus in Danish wild birds, 2006-2020
- Spatial patterns of avian influenza in wild birds from Denmark, 2006-2020
- Using surveillance data for early warning modelling of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Europe reveals a seasonal shift in transmission, 2016–2022”
Collaboration
The ENIGMA project is carried out in collaboration with:
- Timme Nyegaard, Dansk Ornitologisk Forening: https://www.dof.dk/om-dof/organisationen/medarbejdere?medarbejder=timme-nyegaard
- Ole Therkildsen, Aarhus University: https://pure.au.dk/portal/da/persons/ole-roland-therkildsen(187df824-805a-4e3e-b50b-a50eac98c1ac).html
- Preben Clausen: https://pure.au.dk/portal/da/persons/preben-clausen(09884c6f-eeec-4774-a4e9-db625c26dd82).html
- Michael Ward, University of Sydney: https://www.sydney.edu.au/science/about/our-people/academic-staff/michael-ward.html
Project participants
- Lene Jung Kjær
- Anette Boklund
- Yangfan Liu
- Lars Erik Larsen
- Charlotte Hjulsager