A review of estimated transmission parameters for the spread of avian influenza viruses
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A review of estimated transmission parameters for the spread of avian influenza viruses. / Kirkeby, Carsten; Ward, Michael P.
I: Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, Bind 69, Nr. 6, 2022, s. 3238-3246.Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › fagfællebedømt
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TY - JOUR
T1 - A review of estimated transmission parameters for the spread of avian influenza viruses
AU - Kirkeby, Carsten
AU - Ward, Michael P.
N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Authors. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases published by Wiley-VCH GmbH.
PY - 2022
Y1 - 2022
N2 - Avian influenza poses an increasing problem in Europe and around the world. Simulation models are a useful tool to predict the spatiotemporal risk of avian influenza spread and evaluate appropriate control actions. To develop realistic simulation models, valid transmission parameters are critical. Here, we reviewed published estimates of the basic reproduction number (R0), the latent period and the infectious period by virus type, pathogenicity, species, study type and poultry flock unit. We found a large variation in the parameter estimates, with highest R0 estimates for H5N1 and H7N3 compared with other types; for low pathogenic avian influenza compared with high pathogenic avian influenza types; for ducks compared with other species; for estimates from field studies compared with experimental studies; and for within-flock estimates compared with between-flock estimates. Simulation models should reflect this observed variation so as to produce more reliable outputs and support decision-making. How to incorporate this information into simulation models remains a challenge.
AB - Avian influenza poses an increasing problem in Europe and around the world. Simulation models are a useful tool to predict the spatiotemporal risk of avian influenza spread and evaluate appropriate control actions. To develop realistic simulation models, valid transmission parameters are critical. Here, we reviewed published estimates of the basic reproduction number (R0), the latent period and the infectious period by virus type, pathogenicity, species, study type and poultry flock unit. We found a large variation in the parameter estimates, with highest R0 estimates for H5N1 and H7N3 compared with other types; for low pathogenic avian influenza compared with high pathogenic avian influenza types; for ducks compared with other species; for estimates from field studies compared with experimental studies; and for within-flock estimates compared with between-flock estimates. Simulation models should reflect this observed variation so as to produce more reliable outputs and support decision-making. How to incorporate this information into simulation models remains a challenge.
KW - avian influenza virus
KW - mathematical model
KW - poultry
KW - simulation model
KW - transmission
U2 - 10.1111/tbed.14675
DO - 10.1111/tbed.14675
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 35959696
AN - SCOPUS:85136497460
VL - 69
SP - 3238
EP - 3246
JO - Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
JF - Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
SN - 1865-1674
IS - 6
ER -
ID: 319164684