Simulation of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Spread and Effects of Mitigation Strategies to Support Veterinary Contingency Planning in Denmark
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Simulation of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Spread and Effects of Mitigation Strategies to Support Veterinary Contingency Planning in Denmark. / Conrady, Beate; Mortensen, Sten; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose; Houe, Hans; Calvo-Artavia, Francisco Fernando; Ellis-Iversen, Johanne; Boklund, Anette.
I: Pathogens, Bind 12, Nr. 3, 435, 2023.Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › fagfællebedømt
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Simulation of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Spread and Effects of Mitigation Strategies to Support Veterinary Contingency Planning in Denmark
AU - Conrady, Beate
AU - Mortensen, Sten
AU - Nielsen, Søren Saxmose
AU - Houe, Hans
AU - Calvo-Artavia, Francisco Fernando
AU - Ellis-Iversen, Johanne
AU - Boklund, Anette
N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2023 by the authors.
PY - 2023
Y1 - 2023
N2 - To forge a path towards livestock disease emergency preparedness in Denmark, 15 different strategies to mitigate foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) were examined by modelling epidemics initiated in cattle, pig or small ruminant herds across various production systems located in four different Danish regions (Scenario 1), or in one specific livestock production system within each of the three species geographically distributed throughout Denmark (Scenario 2). When additional mitigation strategies were implemented on top of basic control strategies in the European foot-and-mouth disease spread model (EuFMDiS), no significant benefits were predicted in terms of the number of infected farms, the epidemic control duration, and the total economic cost. Further, the model results indicated that the choice of index herd, the resources for outbreak control, and the detection time of FMD significantly influenced the course of an epidemic. The present study results emphasise the importance of basic mitigation strategies, including an effective back-and-forward traceability system, adequate resources for outbreak response, and a high level of awareness among farmers and veterinarians concerning the detection and reporting of FMD at an early stage of an outbreak for FMD control in Denmark.
AB - To forge a path towards livestock disease emergency preparedness in Denmark, 15 different strategies to mitigate foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) were examined by modelling epidemics initiated in cattle, pig or small ruminant herds across various production systems located in four different Danish regions (Scenario 1), or in one specific livestock production system within each of the three species geographically distributed throughout Denmark (Scenario 2). When additional mitigation strategies were implemented on top of basic control strategies in the European foot-and-mouth disease spread model (EuFMDiS), no significant benefits were predicted in terms of the number of infected farms, the epidemic control duration, and the total economic cost. Further, the model results indicated that the choice of index herd, the resources for outbreak control, and the detection time of FMD significantly influenced the course of an epidemic. The present study results emphasise the importance of basic mitigation strategies, including an effective back-and-forward traceability system, adequate resources for outbreak response, and a high level of awareness among farmers and veterinarians concerning the detection and reporting of FMD at an early stage of an outbreak for FMD control in Denmark.
KW - control strategies
KW - economic impact
KW - EuFMDiS
KW - FMD
KW - modelling
U2 - 10.3390/pathogens12030435
DO - 10.3390/pathogens12030435
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 36986357
AN - SCOPUS:85151445367
VL - 12
JO - Pathogens
JF - Pathogens
SN - 2076-0817
IS - 3
M1 - 435
ER -
ID: 343340517