The convergence epidemic volatility index (cEVI) as an alternative early warning tool for identifying waves in an epidemic

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › fagfællebedømt

Standard

The convergence epidemic volatility index (cEVI) as an alternative early warning tool for identifying waves in an epidemic. / Pateras, Konstantinos; Meletis, Eleftherios; Denwood, Matthew; Eusebi, Paolo; Kostoulas, Polychronis.

I: Infectious Disease Modelling, Bind 8, Nr. 2, 2023, s. 484-490.

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › fagfællebedømt

Harvard

Pateras, K, Meletis, E, Denwood, M, Eusebi, P & Kostoulas, P 2023, 'The convergence epidemic volatility index (cEVI) as an alternative early warning tool for identifying waves in an epidemic', Infectious Disease Modelling, bind 8, nr. 2, s. 484-490. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2023.05.001

APA

Pateras, K., Meletis, E., Denwood, M., Eusebi, P., & Kostoulas, P. (2023). The convergence epidemic volatility index (cEVI) as an alternative early warning tool for identifying waves in an epidemic. Infectious Disease Modelling, 8(2), 484-490. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2023.05.001

Vancouver

Pateras K, Meletis E, Denwood M, Eusebi P, Kostoulas P. The convergence epidemic volatility index (cEVI) as an alternative early warning tool for identifying waves in an epidemic. Infectious Disease Modelling. 2023;8(2):484-490. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2023.05.001

Author

Pateras, Konstantinos ; Meletis, Eleftherios ; Denwood, Matthew ; Eusebi, Paolo ; Kostoulas, Polychronis. / The convergence epidemic volatility index (cEVI) as an alternative early warning tool for identifying waves in an epidemic. I: Infectious Disease Modelling. 2023 ; Bind 8, Nr. 2. s. 484-490.

Bibtex

@article{a742ba8b95f1434991ef3827f761ff19,
title = "The convergence epidemic volatility index (cEVI) as an alternative early warning tool for identifying waves in an epidemic",
abstract = "This manuscript introduces the convergence Epidemic Volatility Index (cEVI), a modification of the recently introduced Epidemic Volatility Index (EVI), as an early warning tool for emerging epidemic waves. cEVI has a similar architectural structure as EVI, but with an optimization process inspired by a Geweke diagnostic-type test. Our approach triggers an early warning based on a comparison of the most recently available window of data samples and a window based on the previous time frame. Application of cEVI to data from the COVID-19 pandemic data revealed steady performance in predicting early, intermediate epidemic waves and retaining a warning during an epidemic wave. Furthermore, we present two basic combinations of EVI and cEVI: (1) their disjunction cEVI + that respectively identifies waves earlier than the original index, (2) their conjunction cEVI- that results in higher accuracy. Combination of multiple warning systems could potentially create a surveillance umbrella that would result in early implementation of optimal outbreak interventions.",
keywords = "Convergence diagnostics, Early warning, Epidemic index, Surveillance system, Time-series",
author = "Konstantinos Pateras and Eleftherios Meletis and Matthew Denwood and Paolo Eusebi and Polychronis Kostoulas",
note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023 The Authors",
year = "2023",
doi = "10.1016/j.idm.2023.05.001",
language = "English",
volume = "8",
pages = "484--490",
journal = "Infectious Disease Modelling",
issn = "2468-2152",
publisher = "KeAi Publishing Communications Ltd.",
number = "2",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - The convergence epidemic volatility index (cEVI) as an alternative early warning tool for identifying waves in an epidemic

AU - Pateras, Konstantinos

AU - Meletis, Eleftherios

AU - Denwood, Matthew

AU - Eusebi, Paolo

AU - Kostoulas, Polychronis

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2023 The Authors

PY - 2023

Y1 - 2023

N2 - This manuscript introduces the convergence Epidemic Volatility Index (cEVI), a modification of the recently introduced Epidemic Volatility Index (EVI), as an early warning tool for emerging epidemic waves. cEVI has a similar architectural structure as EVI, but with an optimization process inspired by a Geweke diagnostic-type test. Our approach triggers an early warning based on a comparison of the most recently available window of data samples and a window based on the previous time frame. Application of cEVI to data from the COVID-19 pandemic data revealed steady performance in predicting early, intermediate epidemic waves and retaining a warning during an epidemic wave. Furthermore, we present two basic combinations of EVI and cEVI: (1) their disjunction cEVI + that respectively identifies waves earlier than the original index, (2) their conjunction cEVI- that results in higher accuracy. Combination of multiple warning systems could potentially create a surveillance umbrella that would result in early implementation of optimal outbreak interventions.

AB - This manuscript introduces the convergence Epidemic Volatility Index (cEVI), a modification of the recently introduced Epidemic Volatility Index (EVI), as an early warning tool for emerging epidemic waves. cEVI has a similar architectural structure as EVI, but with an optimization process inspired by a Geweke diagnostic-type test. Our approach triggers an early warning based on a comparison of the most recently available window of data samples and a window based on the previous time frame. Application of cEVI to data from the COVID-19 pandemic data revealed steady performance in predicting early, intermediate epidemic waves and retaining a warning during an epidemic wave. Furthermore, we present two basic combinations of EVI and cEVI: (1) their disjunction cEVI + that respectively identifies waves earlier than the original index, (2) their conjunction cEVI- that results in higher accuracy. Combination of multiple warning systems could potentially create a surveillance umbrella that would result in early implementation of optimal outbreak interventions.

KW - Convergence diagnostics

KW - Early warning

KW - Epidemic index

KW - Surveillance system

KW - Time-series

U2 - 10.1016/j.idm.2023.05.001

DO - 10.1016/j.idm.2023.05.001

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 37234097

AN - SCOPUS:85159579565

VL - 8

SP - 484

EP - 490

JO - Infectious Disease Modelling

JF - Infectious Disease Modelling

SN - 2468-2152

IS - 2

ER -

ID: 347698953