Enigma2

The ENIGMA2 project is a veterinary contingency project in the DKVET consortium, funded by the Danish Veterinary and Food Administration.

Background

In recent years, avian influenza outbreaks have surged in Denmark, affecting both wild birds and poultry farms, with significant economic repercussions due to the culling of affected flocks. Recently, high-pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has impacted other regions, including cattle in the US, and other animals such as cats, seals, and seabird colonies throughout the world. These widespread outbreaks underscore the need for targeted research to identify high-risk areas and periods. A deeper understanding of the factors driving these outbreaks in Denmark, and across diverse species, is crucial for developing effective mitigation strategies and preventing future incidents. This project is rooted in the Avian Influenza Epidemiology group. We work on the international, national and the local level to investigate the spatiotemporal transmission patterns of avian influenza within Denmark. 

Click the video above to see changes in prevalence 

Purpose of the Project

The ENIGMA2 project is a sequel to the ENIGMA project (2021-2024). The objective of the ENIGMA2 project is to expand the research carried out in the ENIGMA project, maintain the developed competencies and models, and investigate the effects of vaccinating poultry against avian influenza. There are three main work packages:

  • Migration and Genotypes: This package focuses on the risk of incoming infections through migrating birds. An upgraded risk model will include migration data to better predict outbreaks in Denmark, considering flight paths, seasonal variations, and virus variants. The goal is to enhance decision-making support by refining the spatial and temporal risk assessment.
  • Biosecurity: This work package involves modeling the impact of biosecurity measures on poultry farms, using case-control study data. By integrating explanatory factors per farm, we will estimate the risk of avian influenza introduction to poultry farms in Denmark, helping authorities to optimize biosecurity strategies nationwide.
  • Vaccination Modeling: Building on a within-flock model developed in the ENGIMA project, this package will simulate different poultry farm scenarios, including vaccination effects. We will explore the effects of vaccination coverage to control the spread of avian influenza and provide inputs to the national risk model, helping to adjust risk estimates based on vaccination strategies.

Collaboration

The ENIGMA2 project is carried out in collaboration with: 

Project participants