ASF Exit Strategy: Providing cumulative evidence of the absence of African swine fever virus circulation in wild boar populations using standard surveillance measures

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning

Standard

ASF Exit Strategy: Providing cumulative evidence of the absence of African swine fever virus circulation in wild boar populations using standard surveillance measures. / European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), ; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose; Alvarez, Julio; Bicout, Dominique Joseph; Calistri, Paolo; Depner, Klaus; Drewe, Julian Ashley; Garin-Bastuji, Bruno; Gonzales Rojas, Jose Luis; Gortazar Schmidt, Christian; Herskin, Mette; Michel, Virginie; Miranda Chueca, Miguel Ángel; Pasquali, Paolo; Roberts, Helen Clare; Sihvonen, Liisa Helena; Spoolder, Hans; Stahl, Karl; Velarde, Antonio; Winckler, Christoph; Abrahantes, José Cortiňas; Dhollander, Sofie; Ivanciu, Corina; Papanikolaou, Alexandra; Van der Stede, Yves; Blome, Sandra; Guberti, Vittorio; Loi, Federica; More, Simon; Olsevskis, Edvins; Thulke, Hans Hermann; Viltrop, Arvo.

I: EFSA Journal, Bind 19, Nr. 3, e06419, 08.03.2021, s. 1-72.

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning

Harvard

European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), , Nielsen, SS, Alvarez, J, Bicout, DJ, Calistri, P, Depner, K, Drewe, JA, Garin-Bastuji, B, Gonzales Rojas, JL, Gortazar Schmidt, C, Herskin, M, Michel, V, Miranda Chueca, MÁ, Pasquali, P, Roberts, HC, Sihvonen, LH, Spoolder, H, Stahl, K, Velarde, A, Winckler, C, Abrahantes, JC, Dhollander, S, Ivanciu, C, Papanikolaou, A, Van der Stede, Y, Blome, S, Guberti, V, Loi, F, More, S, Olsevskis, E, Thulke, HH & Viltrop, A 2021, 'ASF Exit Strategy: Providing cumulative evidence of the absence of African swine fever virus circulation in wild boar populations using standard surveillance measures', EFSA Journal, bind 19, nr. 3, e06419, s. 1-72. https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2021.6419

APA

European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), Nielsen, S. S., Alvarez, J., Bicout, D. J., Calistri, P., Depner, K., Drewe, J. A., Garin-Bastuji, B., Gonzales Rojas, J. L., Gortazar Schmidt, C., Herskin, M., Michel, V., Miranda Chueca, M. Á., Pasquali, P., Roberts, H. C., Sihvonen, L. H., Spoolder, H., Stahl, K., Velarde, A., ... Viltrop, A. (2021). ASF Exit Strategy: Providing cumulative evidence of the absence of African swine fever virus circulation in wild boar populations using standard surveillance measures. EFSA Journal, 19(3), 1-72. [e06419]. https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2021.6419

Vancouver

European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) , Nielsen SS, Alvarez J, Bicout DJ, Calistri P, Depner K o.a. ASF Exit Strategy: Providing cumulative evidence of the absence of African swine fever virus circulation in wild boar populations using standard surveillance measures. EFSA Journal. 2021 mar. 8;19(3):1-72. e06419. https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2021.6419

Author

European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), ; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose ; Alvarez, Julio ; Bicout, Dominique Joseph ; Calistri, Paolo ; Depner, Klaus ; Drewe, Julian Ashley ; Garin-Bastuji, Bruno ; Gonzales Rojas, Jose Luis ; Gortazar Schmidt, Christian ; Herskin, Mette ; Michel, Virginie ; Miranda Chueca, Miguel Ángel ; Pasquali, Paolo ; Roberts, Helen Clare ; Sihvonen, Liisa Helena ; Spoolder, Hans ; Stahl, Karl ; Velarde, Antonio ; Winckler, Christoph ; Abrahantes, José Cortiňas ; Dhollander, Sofie ; Ivanciu, Corina ; Papanikolaou, Alexandra ; Van der Stede, Yves ; Blome, Sandra ; Guberti, Vittorio ; Loi, Federica ; More, Simon ; Olsevskis, Edvins ; Thulke, Hans Hermann ; Viltrop, Arvo. / ASF Exit Strategy: Providing cumulative evidence of the absence of African swine fever virus circulation in wild boar populations using standard surveillance measures. I: EFSA Journal. 2021 ; Bind 19, Nr. 3. s. 1-72.

Bibtex

@article{411910580cbf4840b62e2ed64f1c421e,
title = "ASF Exit Strategy: Providing cumulative evidence of the absence of African swine fever virus circulation in wild boar populations using standard surveillance measures",
abstract = "EFSA assessed the role of seropositive wild boar in African swine fever (ASF) persistence. Surveillance data from Estonia and Latvia investigated with a generalised equation method demonstrated a significantly slower decline in seroprevalence in adult animals compared with subadults. The seroprevalence in adults, taking more than 24 months to approach zero after the last detection of ASFV circulation, would be a poor indicator to demonstrate the absence of virus circulation. A narrative literature review updated the knowledge on the mortality rate, the duration of protective immunity and maternal antibodies and transmission parameters. In addition, parameters potentially leading to prolonged virus circulation (persistence) in wild boar populations were reviewed. A stochastic explicit model was used to evaluate the dynamics of virus prevalence, seroprevalence and the number of carcasses attributed to ASF. Secondly, the impact of four scenarios on the duration of ASF virus (ASFV) persistence was evaluated with the model, namely a: (1) prolonged, lifelong infectious period, (2) reduction in the case-fatality rate and prolonged transient infectiousness; (3) change in duration of protective immunity and (4) change in the duration of protection from maternal antibodies. Only the lifelong infectious period scenario had an important prolonging effect on the persistence of ASF. Finally, the model tested the performance of different proposed surveillance strategies to provide evidence of the absence of virus circulation (Exit Strategy). A two-phase approach (Screening Phase, Confirmation Phase) was suggested for the Exit Strategy. The accuracy of the Exit Strategy increases with increasing numbers of carcasses collected and tested. The inclusion of active surveillance based on hunting has limited impact on the performance of the Exit Strategy compared with lengthening of the monitoring period. This performance improvement should be reasonably balanced against an unnecessary prolonged {\textquoteleft}time free{\textquoteright} with only a marginal gain in performance. Recommendations are provided for minimum monitoring periods leading to minimal failure rates of the Exit Strategy. The proposed Exit Strategy would fail with the presence of lifelong infectious wild boar. That said, it should be emphasised that the existence of such animals is speculative, based on current knowledge.",
keywords = "African swine fever, domestic pig, epidemiology, freedom of infection, management, risk factor, seasonality, surveillance, wild boar",
author = "{European Food Safety Authority (EFSA)} and Nielsen, {S{\o}ren Saxmose} and Julio Alvarez and Bicout, {Dominique Joseph} and Paolo Calistri and Klaus Depner and Drewe, {Julian Ashley} and Bruno Garin-Bastuji and {Gonzales Rojas}, {Jose Luis} and {Gortazar Schmidt}, Christian and Mette Herskin and Virginie Michel and {Miranda Chueca}, {Miguel {\'A}ngel} and Paolo Pasquali and Roberts, {Helen Clare} and Sihvonen, {Liisa Helena} and Hans Spoolder and Karl Stahl and Antonio Velarde and Christoph Winckler and Abrahantes, {Jos{\'e} Corti{\v n}as} and Sofie Dhollander and Corina Ivanciu and Alexandra Papanikolaou and {Van der Stede}, Yves and Sandra Blome and Vittorio Guberti and Federica Loi and Simon More and Edvins Olsevskis and Thulke, {Hans Hermann} and Arvo Viltrop",
year = "2021",
month = mar,
day = "8",
doi = "10.2903/j.efsa.2021.6419",
language = "English",
volume = "19",
pages = "1--72",
journal = "E F S A Journal",
issn = "1831-4732",
publisher = "European Food Safety Authority (E F S A)",
number = "3",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - ASF Exit Strategy: Providing cumulative evidence of the absence of African swine fever virus circulation in wild boar populations using standard surveillance measures

AU - European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), null

AU - Nielsen, Søren Saxmose

AU - Alvarez, Julio

AU - Bicout, Dominique Joseph

AU - Calistri, Paolo

AU - Depner, Klaus

AU - Drewe, Julian Ashley

AU - Garin-Bastuji, Bruno

AU - Gonzales Rojas, Jose Luis

AU - Gortazar Schmidt, Christian

AU - Herskin, Mette

AU - Michel, Virginie

AU - Miranda Chueca, Miguel Ángel

AU - Pasquali, Paolo

AU - Roberts, Helen Clare

AU - Sihvonen, Liisa Helena

AU - Spoolder, Hans

AU - Stahl, Karl

AU - Velarde, Antonio

AU - Winckler, Christoph

AU - Abrahantes, José Cortiňas

AU - Dhollander, Sofie

AU - Ivanciu, Corina

AU - Papanikolaou, Alexandra

AU - Van der Stede, Yves

AU - Blome, Sandra

AU - Guberti, Vittorio

AU - Loi, Federica

AU - More, Simon

AU - Olsevskis, Edvins

AU - Thulke, Hans Hermann

AU - Viltrop, Arvo

PY - 2021/3/8

Y1 - 2021/3/8

N2 - EFSA assessed the role of seropositive wild boar in African swine fever (ASF) persistence. Surveillance data from Estonia and Latvia investigated with a generalised equation method demonstrated a significantly slower decline in seroprevalence in adult animals compared with subadults. The seroprevalence in adults, taking more than 24 months to approach zero after the last detection of ASFV circulation, would be a poor indicator to demonstrate the absence of virus circulation. A narrative literature review updated the knowledge on the mortality rate, the duration of protective immunity and maternal antibodies and transmission parameters. In addition, parameters potentially leading to prolonged virus circulation (persistence) in wild boar populations were reviewed. A stochastic explicit model was used to evaluate the dynamics of virus prevalence, seroprevalence and the number of carcasses attributed to ASF. Secondly, the impact of four scenarios on the duration of ASF virus (ASFV) persistence was evaluated with the model, namely a: (1) prolonged, lifelong infectious period, (2) reduction in the case-fatality rate and prolonged transient infectiousness; (3) change in duration of protective immunity and (4) change in the duration of protection from maternal antibodies. Only the lifelong infectious period scenario had an important prolonging effect on the persistence of ASF. Finally, the model tested the performance of different proposed surveillance strategies to provide evidence of the absence of virus circulation (Exit Strategy). A two-phase approach (Screening Phase, Confirmation Phase) was suggested for the Exit Strategy. The accuracy of the Exit Strategy increases with increasing numbers of carcasses collected and tested. The inclusion of active surveillance based on hunting has limited impact on the performance of the Exit Strategy compared with lengthening of the monitoring period. This performance improvement should be reasonably balanced against an unnecessary prolonged ‘time free’ with only a marginal gain in performance. Recommendations are provided for minimum monitoring periods leading to minimal failure rates of the Exit Strategy. The proposed Exit Strategy would fail with the presence of lifelong infectious wild boar. That said, it should be emphasised that the existence of such animals is speculative, based on current knowledge.

AB - EFSA assessed the role of seropositive wild boar in African swine fever (ASF) persistence. Surveillance data from Estonia and Latvia investigated with a generalised equation method demonstrated a significantly slower decline in seroprevalence in adult animals compared with subadults. The seroprevalence in adults, taking more than 24 months to approach zero after the last detection of ASFV circulation, would be a poor indicator to demonstrate the absence of virus circulation. A narrative literature review updated the knowledge on the mortality rate, the duration of protective immunity and maternal antibodies and transmission parameters. In addition, parameters potentially leading to prolonged virus circulation (persistence) in wild boar populations were reviewed. A stochastic explicit model was used to evaluate the dynamics of virus prevalence, seroprevalence and the number of carcasses attributed to ASF. Secondly, the impact of four scenarios on the duration of ASF virus (ASFV) persistence was evaluated with the model, namely a: (1) prolonged, lifelong infectious period, (2) reduction in the case-fatality rate and prolonged transient infectiousness; (3) change in duration of protective immunity and (4) change in the duration of protection from maternal antibodies. Only the lifelong infectious period scenario had an important prolonging effect on the persistence of ASF. Finally, the model tested the performance of different proposed surveillance strategies to provide evidence of the absence of virus circulation (Exit Strategy). A two-phase approach (Screening Phase, Confirmation Phase) was suggested for the Exit Strategy. The accuracy of the Exit Strategy increases with increasing numbers of carcasses collected and tested. The inclusion of active surveillance based on hunting has limited impact on the performance of the Exit Strategy compared with lengthening of the monitoring period. This performance improvement should be reasonably balanced against an unnecessary prolonged ‘time free’ with only a marginal gain in performance. Recommendations are provided for minimum monitoring periods leading to minimal failure rates of the Exit Strategy. The proposed Exit Strategy would fail with the presence of lifelong infectious wild boar. That said, it should be emphasised that the existence of such animals is speculative, based on current knowledge.

KW - African swine fever

KW - domestic pig

KW - epidemiology

KW - freedom of infection

KW - management

KW - risk factor

KW - seasonality

KW - surveillance

KW - wild boar

U2 - 10.2903/j.efsa.2021.6419

DO - 10.2903/j.efsa.2021.6419

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 33717352

VL - 19

SP - 1

EP - 72

JO - E F S A Journal

JF - E F S A Journal

SN - 1831-4732

IS - 3

M1 - e06419

ER -

ID: 257886888