Dynamic generalized linear models for monitoring endemic diseases: moving beyond univariate process monitoring control algorithms
Publikation: Konferencebidrag › Paper › Forskning › fagfællebedømt
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Dynamic generalized linear models for monitoring endemic diseases : moving beyond univariate process monitoring control algorithms. / Lopes Antunes, Ana Carolina; Jensen, Dan Børge; Halasa, Tariq; Toft, Nina.
2016. Paper præsenteret ved Annual Meeting of the Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine - 2016.Publikation: Konferencebidrag › Paper › Forskning › fagfællebedømt
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TY - CONF
T1 - Dynamic generalized linear models for monitoring endemic diseases
AU - Lopes Antunes, Ana Carolina
AU - Jensen, Dan Børge
AU - Halasa, Tariq
AU - Toft, Nina
PY - 2016/3
Y1 - 2016/3
N2 - The objective was to use a Dynamic Generalized Linear Model (DGLM) based on abinomial distribution with a linear trend, for monitoring the PRRS (Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome sero-prevalence in Danish swine herds. The DGLM was described and its performance for monitoring control and eradication programmes based on changes in PRRS sero-prevalence was explored. Results showed a declining trend in PRRS sero-prevalence between 2007 and 2014 suggesting that Danish herds are slowly eradicating PRRS. The simulation study demonstrated the flexibility of DGLMs in adapting to changes intrends in sero-prevalence. Based on this, it was possible to detect variations in the growth model component. This study is a proof-of-concept, demonstrating the use of DGLMs for monitoring endemic diseases. In addition, the principles stated might be useful in general research on monitoring and surveillance of endemic and (re-)emerging diseases.
AB - The objective was to use a Dynamic Generalized Linear Model (DGLM) based on abinomial distribution with a linear trend, for monitoring the PRRS (Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome sero-prevalence in Danish swine herds. The DGLM was described and its performance for monitoring control and eradication programmes based on changes in PRRS sero-prevalence was explored. Results showed a declining trend in PRRS sero-prevalence between 2007 and 2014 suggesting that Danish herds are slowly eradicating PRRS. The simulation study demonstrated the flexibility of DGLMs in adapting to changes intrends in sero-prevalence. Based on this, it was possible to detect variations in the growth model component. This study is a proof-of-concept, demonstrating the use of DGLMs for monitoring endemic diseases. In addition, the principles stated might be useful in general research on monitoring and surveillance of endemic and (re-)emerging diseases.
UR - https://curis.ku.dk/admin/files/174127172/SVEPM_Proceedings_Antunes.pdf
M3 - Paper
Y2 - 16 March 2016 through 18 March 2017
ER -
ID: 174127170